Let’s start with the Adjusted Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) for the next three game-weeks below:
So we’re in an interesting period of games coming up with lots of double GWs, so we have to not look only at FDR, but also at amounts of minutes players from different teams might get. For example, even though MCI have some tough games coming up — TOT and EVE — we might still want to have more players from them because of stacked points. Other than that — it looks like ARS, LEI, NEW, WHY, and TOT have some tough games coming up, so we might want to be careful when investing in players from these teams. CRY, BHA, MUN, BUR, and FUL seem to have more easy schedules over the next three weeks, so our algorithm would favor players from those teams, especially BUR and FUL, who have double GW24.
We will try to stack up on players from teams that have a higher than 50 % chance of winning such as CHE, MUN, MCI, WHU, and ARS. We should try not to have many defensive players from NEW, WBA, TOT, SHU, and EVE.
Teams with a higher probability to draw, especially when the game is combined with high odds for Under 2.5, might be good for selecting defensive players because if the game ends 0:0, that will result in lots of bonus points. Combined with the Under/Over Graph below, we can identify the following games with a higher probability of at least one clean sheet — CRY-BUR, BUR-FUL, SOU-WOL, and WHU-SHU.
Inversely, we might want to have more attacking players from games with high odds for Over 2.5 such as ARS-LEE, CHE-NEW, MCI-TOT, EVE-MCI, BHA-AVL, and LEI-LIV.
From the stats below it appears that there is a higher chance for a penalty given in games: CRY-BUR, WBA-MUN, LEI-LIV, and ARS-LEE so we recommend having penalty takers from some of these teams. Looks, like the games EVE-FUL, WHU-SHU, and SOU-WOL have refs that like to give a lot of cards, so expect to lose some points from yellow/red cards.
Before we run our final team selector, let’s take into account the predicted starting 11 for each team and the doubtful/injured players. Please take the table below with a “grain of salt” since lots of that can change last minute after COVID test updates and injuries.